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How does weather forecasting work?

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Quick answer

Weather forecasting works by feeding huge amounts of current data — temperature, pressure, wind, humidity from satellites, stations, and balloons — into powerful computer models that simulate how the atmosphere will change over the coming hours and days. Sensors worldwide measure the current state of the atmosphere.

Step by step

  1. Sensors worldwide measure the current state of the atmosphere.
  2. Supercomputers run physics-based models to project changes forward.
  3. Forecasts get less accurate further ahead (the atmosphere is chaotic).
  4. Forecasters interpret model output and refine the prediction.

People also ask

Why are forecasts sometimes wrong?
The atmosphere is chaotic; tiny measurement gaps grow over time, so accuracy drops the further ahead you predict.
How far ahead can we forecast weather?
Fairly reliably about a week; beyond that, uncertainty rises quickly.
What data goes into a forecast?
Temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind from satellites, ground stations, balloons, and radar.

Part of the guide: Water & Weather Phenomena →